On October 16, the Center for Civic Analytics "Vezha" hosted a discussion with Ivan Us, economic expert and consultant at the Center for Foreign Policy Studies. The focus was on the prospects of India ceasing Russian oil imports, set against ongoing geopolitical events and statements from former US President Donald Trump.
The discussion began by noting that, despite India's official claims of reducing Russian oil purchases, the country's private refineries continue actively importing Russian energy. According to Ivan Us, trade conditions favor India, especially due to payment in rupees, which Russia cannot freely convert or transfer out of India—amounting to the equivalent of $39 billion stuck in rupee accounts. This arrangement lets India buy cheaper oil, while Russia gains little tangible benefit.
The US, especially under Trump, has sought to pressure India by imposing additional tariffs and pushing for a ban on Russian oil, offering removal of some economic restrictions in return. The expert points out that such pressure would only be effective with coordinated action involving the US, EU, Japan, and other allies.
Ivan Us also examined US-China trade relations, the search for alternatives to Chinese monopoly on rare earth elements, and India's role as a potential economic rival to China. He discussed India's growth prospects, major investments like those from Google, and the potential for the country to become a leading player in the global economy in the coming decades.
In conclusion, the expert emphasized that both Ukraine and the US should prioritize strategic partnerships with India to counter the influence of China and Russia in global markets.
