Recent developments have shown that even the prospect of Western missiles, such as Tomahawks, being supplied to Ukraine has caused nervousness in the Kremlin. Ukraine is actively using new combinations of weaponry to strike at Russian oil and gas infrastructure. For its part, Russia faces limited opportunities to inflict effective damage on Ukrainian critical infrastructure, worried about potential Ukrainian retaliation.
Western support, especially drones and additional weaponry, could significantly disrupt Russia's economy and military capabilities. Moscow acknowledges the risks and is seeking dialogue with Western politicians, including Donald Trump, to try to reduce Ukraine's level of support.
Trump's position has shifted: he is now less certain of Russia's ability to gain a total victory and recognizes the need to consider Ukraine's interests. The US sees Ukraine as a strategic partner in securing Europe's energy independence and reducing the EU's reliance on Russian resources.
The Kremlin has focused on preparing new offensives in the Donbas, but Ukraine's defense remains steadfast thanks to the heroism of its military and societal support. Russia remains under the influence of its own information environment, often exaggerating success, with Western leaders increasingly skeptical of Russian narratives.
Moscow is likely to prolong the situation at least until spring 2025, hoping for shifts in international politics. Meanwhile, Western allies, including Trump, may consider further weakening Russia by increasing support for Ukraine to strengthen its position.
Overall, Ukraine's position is improving despite the drawn-out nature of the war. The future course will depend on the determination of Western leaders and Ukraine's ability to maintain unity and international backing.
