In recent discussions, experts highlighted a high probability of peace negotiations in Budapest with the participation of leaders from Ukraine, Russia, the US, and European countries. The meeting could be arranged via Turkey and the Balkans and is currently being actively prepared—even as some specialists remain skeptical about its feasibility.
The main risk for Ukraine lies not only in the absence of concrete decisions but also in possible manipulations by Vladimir Putin, who may propose initiatives unacceptable to Ukraine and designed to increase disagreements between Kyiv and Washington. Additional concerns include potential influence by Viktor Orban as host—given his less-than-favorable attitude toward Ukraine—and by Donald Trump, who seeks an end to the war but may be open to concessions to Russia.
Participants drew analogies with the Middle East, especially recent agreements regarding the Gaza Strip, noting the difficulty in ensuring lasting peace and credible security guarantees. It was emphasized that real guarantees are virtually unattainable for both Ukraine and the Middle East. NATO accession and legally binding security assurances for Ukraine remain major sticking points, given Russia’s categorical opposition.
A joint statement on the principles of settlement is possible, but a comprehensive peace agreement cannot be reached without Ukraine’s direct involvement. The discussion underscored Kyiv’s unwavering commitment to peace and the need for legally binding security guarantees from the US and Europe—though achieving them appears difficult.
Overall, experts expect the negotiation process to become more active, but foresee challenges in implementing all conditions, particularly regarding security, sanctions, and territorial integrity. The final outcomes depend on the positions of the primary participants and remain open for now.
