China has recently adopted its 15th five-year plan, setting out economic, social, political, and military objectives for the coming decade. Political scientist Ihor Reiterovych notes that the plan will significantly influence global processes, the Russia-Ukraine war, and, indirectly, Ukraine, as Europe remains a top priority for China.
The plan focuses on increasing funding for high-tech industries, scientific research, and support for export-oriented companies in response to the real estate crisis and local government debt issues in China. A particular focus is on expanding access to new export markets, with the European Union as a main target. However, the ongoing Ukraine war has all but blocked this direction for China.
Reiterovych observes that the five-year plan's priorities remain similar to the previous one, which resulted in economic stagnation. China now emphasizes science, green technology (such as solar energy and electric vehicles), dominance in supply chains for rare earth metals, semiconductors, biotechnology, and quantum computing. However, the plan pays little attention to improving the living conditions of ordinary Chinese citizens.
China's exports have grown sharply, with a record trade surplus forecast for 2024. This export boom is prompting other countries to restrict Chinese goods. Meanwhile, China faces a labor market crisis, particularly among young people and the middle class, but the plan offers no tangible social solutions.
The expert compares modern Chinese strategies to those of the late Soviet Union, warning of risks to social stability. The expansion of China's presence in EU markets is possible only after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, making China's interest crucial in seeking peace initiatives.
