Turkish oil refineries are retreating from Russian oil purchases following US sanctions imposed on companies like Rosneft and Lukoil. Turkey’s economy is closely integrated with the West, and the fear of secondary sanctions—potentially affecting bank accounts both in the US and Europe—forces Turkish companies to act cautiously when dealing with sanctioned Russian firms.
The refineries prioritize the economic interests of their corporate owners, who are reluctant to jeopardize business continuity for the sake of sanctioned imports. The main question is how long this restriction will last, as similar tactics were observed previously with Russia’s Surgutneftegas and Gazprom Neft, whose oil continued reaching the market via shadow fleets and indirect supply chains.
Both Indian and Turkish refiners now demand discounts from Russian suppliers to reflect potential sanctions risk and seek supply schemes that limit exposure to penalties. The situation with China is different, as US pressure is minimal due to deep economic interdependence.
US pressure remains strong on Turkey and India as these economies are more vulnerable to sanctions than China. Nevertheless, the market’s logic persists: the temptation to secure cheap Russian oil is considerable, fueling the search for new, illicit supply routes that diminish business exposure to enforcement.
Experts highlight that for sanctions to be effective, enforcement is crucial, especially as countries from the Global South seek ways to circumvent restrictions. History shows that sanctions can be bypassed for decades, as seen with Iran and Venezuela.
