Vitaliy Portnikov analyzes how new US sanctions under Donald Trump’s administration affect the Russia-Ukraine war and Russia’s energy sector. For ten months, Trump imposed no new sanctions against Russia; however, after failed diplomacy and Russia’s refusal to compromise, the US introduced measures against Lukoil and Rosneft.
Moscow’s reaction was calm, while Washington stressed economic consequences for Russia. Observers note that previous sanctions did not cripple Russia’s budget, as the country bypassed them using intermediaries and a shadow fleet. The current round, however, has a more immediate effect: refineries in India, Turkey, and even China have started rejecting Russian oil.
This is caused by the integration of these companies into the global market and their reluctance to risk secondary US sanctions. Analysts expect Russia’s oil-export revenues to fall by 15–20%, though more significant losses are possible.
The efficiency of sanctions depends on Russia’s ability to bypass them. Moscow is seeking new export schemes, conducting trade in yuan, rupees, and lira to avoid US dollars. Still, global players are cautious not to provoke the US, as sanctions now represent a personal issue for Donald Trump.
The article also features Portnikov’s answers to questions on Putin’s strategies, reforms in Ukraine, Russian public sentiment, and the future of democracy amid evolving information technologies. The conclusion: Trump’s sanctions could significantly impact Russia in the medium term, especially if escalation continues.
