The latest US decision on sanctions targeting key Russian energy companies, though not yet in effect, has sparked notable concern in Europe. Germany called for a postponement of sanctions against Rosneft, with Bulgaria backing this stance. Western media report that Indian and Chinese companies are gradually reducing their purchases of Russian oil, while Turkey is turning to Iraqi crude.
Despite skepticism about the impact of Trump’s sanctions, experts acknowledge intensifying pressure on Russia’s economy. Lukoil's announcement of selling its foreign assets is seen as a signal of mounting external stress. Unlike Biden, Trump has reacted more harshly after Putin rejected compromise and communication, although he stopped short of promising Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, citing the nuclear risk and limits to direct military involvement.
There remains demand for Russian oil from India, China, and Turkey, but these buyers are now pushing for higher discounts to offset sanctions risks. Analysts estimate it could take Russia up to four months to adapt to the new restrictions. The Russian energy sector is also struggling in the gas market: in 2023, Russian gas supplies to Europe dropped to their lowest levels since the 1970s, in line with the EU’s plans to end Russian gas imports by 2027.
Analysts suggest that the drop in Russia’s budget revenue from energy sanctions may reach 10-15%, not yet critical since oil and gas constitute about a quarter of federal income. They emphasize that the full impact will be clear only after several months due to market volatility and Russian flexibility with discounts and new partners.
Meanwhile, two strategies are being debated in the West: either pushing Russia out of energy markets rapidly or pursuing gradual substitution, considering national interests. The overall effectiveness of sanctions will depend on actions by third countries and the speed of technological and logistical change in global energy markets.
