Recent Western media reports highlight that US-sanction measures introduced by the Trump administration have begun to take effect. Notably, Turkey, India, and China are reportedly reducing their purchases of Russian oil. According to Bloomberg, Indian companies—both state-owned and private—are decreasing their import volumes.
Meanwhile, OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria, agreed to increase oil production only until the end of the year by 137,000 barrels per day. No further increases are planned for the first quarter next year, reflecting a response to both sanctions and the current market situation.
This presents additional challenges for Russia: amid sanctions and falling demand, selling its oil is becoming increasingly difficult. Recent reports also address Russian gas exports. Reuters states that Russia’s gas exports to Europe from January to October this year totaled less than 15 billion cubic meters—a minimum in over 50 years. By comparison, volumes peaked at nearly 180 billion in 2018–2019.
Currently, gas supplies to Europe are possible only via the TurkStream pipeline, as Ukrainian transit has ceased. By year-end, Russian gas exports to the EU may reach around 18 billion cubic meters, the lowest level since the 1970s.
Other notable trends include the shadow fleet: despite sanctions, tankers with Greek and Turkish ownership still collect oil at Russian ports. Shadow contracts and the illicit sector remain a market challenge.
Debates over the role of sanctions continue within the context of US-China meetings. Discussions go beyond energy, covering security in the Asia-Pacific, global trade, and the future of Russia’s role in energy markets. The further trajectory depends on OPEC+ decisions and the ongoing impact of Western sanctions.
