On November 7, the Center for Public Analytics "Vezha" together with guest Ivan Us, chief foreign policy consultant at the NISS, discussed sanctions against Russia. Recently, Hungary, with its oil monopoly MolNert, announced readiness to refuse Russian oil, coinciding with Prime Minister Orban's visit to the US.
The main focus was whether Hungary genuinely plans to change its supply sources and whether this is due to US pressure. Experts note that the majority of Russian oil is exported to China and India. If Hungary gives up Russian oil, it would have little effect on Russian exports overall but would serve as a political signal and strengthen sanction pressure.
It was highlighted that US sanctions on Russian energy companies have been more effective than European measures, as Russian-linked companies continue to operate in Europe despite sanctions, mainly due to enforcement challenges and close business and political ties. The discussion cited the example of Swedish company Gunvor, associated with Russian oligarchs, which was denied US permission to buy LUKOIL assets—demonstrating the West's tough stance against sanction circumvention through intermediaries.
Experts emphasized that without centralized US policy, sanction enforcement in Europe remains difficult due to financial and energy interdependence with Russia across many EU states. Politicians like Orban may serve as a cover for the interests of other states. The participants stressed that eradicating Russian capital from Europe requires tough, coordinated action from Western partners.
