Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to not only economic and military setbacks for Moscow, but also a loss of geopolitical influence—particularly in Central Asia. Once deemed Kremlin’s “backyard”, the region is no longer under exclusive Russian sway.
The Caucasus nations are tilting toward Turkey, while Central Asia increasingly welcomes China and, more recently, US engagement. China has made significant investments throughout the region via its Belt and Road Initiative, becoming the top trade partner for Central Asian states. By 2024, China’s trade with these nations reached $100 billion, outpacing Russia’s $45 billion.
The US, though economically trailing, has started bolstering relations. A major step was Donald Trump’s unprecedented meeting with all five Central Asian presidents together at the White House.
Critical minerals are among the region’s most strategic assets. Kazakhstan produces 40% of the world’s uranium, and the region holds vast reserves of chromium, copper, tungsten, lithium, and antimony. China controls 90% of the world’s rare earth element processing—posing a challenge for the US and Europe.
Each country pursues its own balancing strategy. Kazakhstan maintains a multivector policy, Uzbekistan is open to reform and Western ties, Turkmenistan clings to official neutrality while exporting most of its gas to China. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain heavily influenced by Moscow.
Russia’s influence has been waning since the Ukraine invasion due to military setbacks, sanctions, and stricter migration policies. China is expanding its presence, but Central Asian states are seeking alternatives and diversification to avoid over-dependence on a single power.
The West, especially the US, is trying to secure access to strategic resources and develop new transport routes bypassing Russian and Chinese corridors. However, the region’s geography, infrastructure, and historical ties to Russia and China pose challenges to the US approach.
In the next decade, Central Asia is set to become a key battleground for global influence, with control over critical minerals, transportation routes, and trade corridors at stake.
