A recent conversation with expert Volodymyr Fesenko highlighted the issue of the so-called "reparations loan," which is currently being considered by Europe. Statements by European politicians and Anders Fogh Rasmussen suggest that Europe is taking a wait-and-see approach regarding significant support for Ukraine and is mainly waiting for a possible ceasefire rather than actively intervening.
The possibility of support from the British army was also discussed, but these statements have not been made official. Additionally, Donald Trump's rhetoric, which some believe European countries partly align with, is influencing the EU's policy direction.
Kazakhstan's President Tokayev and Uzbekistan's president have recently expressed support for Trump, which aligns with current diplomatic trends in Eurasia. At the same time, there is a sense that European support for Ukraine remains limited and the question of ending the war is unresolved.
Expert Vadym noted that the delay in implementing the European reparations loan is due to technicalities: the preparation of a legal framework, with a deadline set for the end of November. He stressed that important behind-the-scenes work continues, meaning the project is not at a standstill. It was also argued that neither Europe nor the US can substantially pressure for an end to the war without China's involvement.
The discussion suggested that the issue of European security is closely linked to the war in Ukraine and may be addressed during US–China talks in the coming months. According to experts, China would need economic incentives to become involved in resolving the situation—such as trade arrangements with the EU or guarantees to maintain access to the European market.
The panel also discussed Russia's circumvention of sanctions through its shadow fleet and the central role of Central Asian countries in facilitating trade with Russia via China. Recent indications are that Washington and Beijing are preparing for a new stage of negotiations, and China could leverage the situation to strengthen its position in the European market. The consensus is that normalizing the conflict will ensure stable trade routes and benefit China, while Ukraine should seek economic dialogue to balance US and Chinese interests in European security.
