Prominent political scientist Ihor Reiterovych has examined the situation around the reparation loan for Ukraine in detail. According to him, the allocation of funds is continuously postponed due to internal disputes in the European Union, especially between the European Commission and Belgium.
The main obstacle is that the largest sum of frozen Russian assets is held in Belgium. It was planned that Ukraine would receive up to €140 billion, which would be used for defense needs, based on these assets. The loan would only need to be repaid if Russia were to pay reparations in the future.
However, the Belgian government has set out a list of conditions, the main one being that responsibility for returning the funds to Russia in case of court rulings should be shared by all EU countries, not only Belgium as the country holding the assets. Recent technical meetings between the European Commission and Belgium have not led to a breakthrough, and alternative solutions are still under discussion.
The situation is further complicated by the US, which has expressed support for the idea of the reparation loan. The White House has signaled its approval to the EU. One suggested solution, proposed by Norway, is to use its Sovereign Wealth Fund as a guarantee for other European countries.
The issue remains unresolved for now. Reiterovych hopes that by December 2025, the EU and Belgium will reach an agreement and develop the necessary mechanisms to support Ukraine. Otherwise, Ukraine may face a significant budget deficit at the start of 2026, which could negatively impact defense and the economy.
In conclusion, the expert highlights the need for clear decisions: Europe must provide guarantees so that Ukraine can legally receive the frozen Russian assets and efficiently counter aggression.
