A year and a half ago, most Ukrainian refugees in Germany planned to return home as soon as the war ended. Today, 65% now say they intend to stay permanently. This data comes from the Tegel shelter in Berlin, which houses thousands of Ukrainians.
The first key reason is time. The longer the war continues, the better people adapt to their new circumstances—children are going to German schools, adults have found jobs, made friends, and grown accustomed to their new country. Returning is no longer a natural decision, but a complex choice involving questions about housing, employment, and re-integrating children into Ukrainian schools.
The second reason is integration. Three-quarters of Ukrainians in Germany are attending language courses, a major investment of time and effort. Ukrainian refugees’ German language proficiency has steadily increased, allowing more to work and manage daily life in German.
The third factor is employment. In summer 2022, only 16% of Ukrainians were employed in Germany, compared with 51% today. About 300,000 now officially work in industry, trade, healthcare, and construction. Being part of the workforce and paying taxes deepens integration and makes returning harder.
Social support is another key factor. Ukrainians receive up to €563 monthly plus coverage for housing, heating, and health insurance. The average benefit including housing is about €880 per month, providing a safety net for adapting and job searching. As of 2025, nearly 700,000 Ukrainians receive such benefits, with 300,000 employed.
There is debate in German politics about reducing benefits for new arrivals, such as lowering payments to €460 and providing vouchers instead of cash. This would not affect those already in the country, whose temporary protection status is likely to be extended.
Family situations also play a role: 29% of women who left without their partners are no longer in relationships, further lowering the likelihood of returning. Children and teenagers, despite attending German schools, often remain connected to Ukraine and sometimes wish to return.
Germany needs skilled labor and is investing in integrating Ukrainians. Ukraine should boost support for its citizens abroad and create return programs, especially targeting youth.
The end of the war alone will not guarantee mass returns; ongoing state support and efforts are needed to maintain ties and offer pathways home.
