On November 12, the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha” hosted an expert discussion led by Valeriy Klochuk and Arthur Kharitonov, a recognized China politics specialist. The focus was on increased tensions between Japan and China following statements by Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi and Beijing’s reaction regarding Taiwan.
Takaichi’s suggestion that Japan could respond militarily to a Chinese attack on Taiwan triggered a strong reaction in Beijing; a Chinese diplomat even threatened the Japanese prime minister. Although Japan formally recognizes the “One China” policy, the country maintains strong historical, economic, and cultural ties with Taiwan dating back to the period when Taiwan was part of Japan (1895–1945).
Japan has long considered Taiwan a separate entity, and strategic cooperation with Taiwan and regional security are vital issues for the Japanese political establishment. Since Shinzo Abe’s tenure, Japan has reformed its defense doctrine, allowing for collective defense outside Japan’s borders if the nation faces an existential threat—potentially protecting Taiwan in case of crisis.
The discussion also covered economic factors: China seeks to reduce support for Taiwan and foster economic collaboration, but Japan under Takaichi is increasingly adopting tougher measures against the PRC, implementing anti-China restrictions and new intelligence and counter-espionage legislation.
In terms of defense, Japan is boosting spending to 3% of GDP, strengthening ties with the US, South Korea, Australia, and exploring nuclear submarine development and advanced military technologies. Beijing is concerned, as Japan is becoming a critical Western ally in the Asia-Pacific region.
Energy issues and China’s circumvention of Western sanctions in partnership with Russia—especially through the acquisition of liquefied natural gas via a 'shadow fleet'—were also discussed. Experts note that China maintains ties with Russia, facilitating the reorientation of the Russian economy.
Conclusion: The relationship between China and Japan is marked by a ‘cold war’ environment, balance of power, and mutual deterrence. Japan is modernizing its defense potential while China seeks greater regional influence. Ukraine and Europe are closely monitoring these dynamics, as regional security carries global significance.
