Home > Peace Talks > Debate on Ukraine’s Neutrality: Western and Russian Approaches, NATO Prospects and Peace Plan Conditions


Debate on Ukraine’s Neutrality: Western and Russian Approaches, NATO Prospects and Peace Plan Conditions


Analysis of Ukraine peace plan proposals, neutrality debate, positions of Europe, the US, Russia and implications for security guarantees and aid.

The issue of Ukraine's neutrality has resurfaced amid new peace proposals led by Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. Historically, Ukraine declared neutrality in its Declaration of State Sovereignty, but later, under President Petro Poroshenko, the constitution was amended to express Ukraine’s ambition to join NATO—a move met with skepticism by some European leaders.

Currently, Russia insists on neutrality and Ukraine’s non-accession to NATO as prerequisites for peace. The European Union and allies have presented their own frameworks, with prohibitions against imposing neutrality or external language requirements on Ukraine, and security guarantees that Russia is unlikely to accept.

Experts point out that Ukraine’s prospects of joining NATO in the next 15–20 years are slim, yet a formal neutral status could close the door to future military alliances, including regional partnerships. Thus, accepting neutrality is seen as a high-risk strategy for Ukraine’s future security.

Security guarantees and foreign assistance remain contentious; analysts emphasize the need for binding European commitments on long-term funding and arms supplies for Ukraine, while other broad security assurances—such as NATO Article 5-like clauses—are widely viewed as unrealistic.

European countries largely oppose weakening Ukraine’s defense. Opinions from Germany, Hungary, Turkey, and the UK highlight the ongoing negotiations, the need for consensus, and concerns about reintegrating Russia into the G8 as proposed in some peace plans. The call for a realistic, comprehensive settlement remains ongoing.