There is a growing belief in Ukrainian society that the US has been trying for decades to preserve Russia as a state, even after Ukraine’s independence. Historical examples, such as President George H. W. Bush’s speech in Kyiv encouraging unity with the Soviet Union, highlight this tendency. Regardless of party, American leaders have traditionally preferred dealing with a central power rather than navigating the unpredictability of new states emerging from Russia’s collapse.
Experts point out that major Western concerns about Russia’s disintegration include nuclear proliferation and the threat of civil war. At the same time, arguments exist that these fears are somewhat exaggerated since maintaining nuclear arsenals requires complex infrastructure and skilled personnel. Mechanisms can be developed to prevent uncontrolled proliferation, provided that the disintegration process is gradual and managed.
Meanwhile, Europe is becoming increasingly aware of its vulnerability to Russian aggression. Still, the EU’s collective position tends to be formed under the influence of changes in US policy. Among European leaders, there is often surprise at sudden partner initiatives and a lack of coordination.
Experts believe that, in the short term, Europe will remain cautious and pragmatic, focusing on building up its national defense capacities. Gradually, it will increase arms production and economic leverage, particularly by managing energy resources.
Discussion participants emphasize that Ukraine must not only influence European decision-making but also actively deploy existing diplomatic and economic tools to protect its interests amid complex international circumstances.
