On December 1, political scientist Ihor Chalenko discussed the significance of Alexander Lukashenko’s recent visit to Oman on the Klychoktime channel. The Belarusian leader, known for his public visibility, disappeared from the media for almost three days during the trip to Muscat, with neither Belarusian nor Omani outlets providing any coverage. The first official images of Lukashenko’s meeting with Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq appeared only on December 1. The informal, almost family-like atmosphere of the meeting left the agenda undisclosed.
The visit coincided with the signing of major economic agreements between Belarus and Oman, although their implementation is complicated by Western sanctions against Minsk. Oman is one of the few partners that continues cooperating with Belarus without Western criticism.
Analyst Chalenko noted that Lukashenko’s visit closely followed behind-the-scenes talks with Putin in Bishkek, where he voiced strong pro-Kremlin statements regarding Ukraine. The chronology suggests that Lukashenko could have delivered a message from the Kremlin to the Omani Sultan about Moscow’s peace plan.
Oman is recognized for discreet mediation in international conflicts but has played a marginal role in the Russia-Ukraine context. Nonetheless, its potential as a communication channel remains relevant. As Russia grows increasingly isolated, the Kremlin is seeking informal ways to advance its diplomatic interests.
Chalenko also highlighted the almost simultaneous visit of Steve Witkoff, a businessman linked to Trump’s diplomatic missions, to Moscow. The concurrent activities of Lukashenko and Witkoff illustrate the Kremlin’s shift towards unofficial communications, aiming to influence Ukraine negotiations while diminishing the official role of Russian diplomacy.
Chalenko concludes that Ukraine should closely monitor such maneuvers, as they signal changes in Russian strategy regarding the war and the peace process.
