Recent developments around the war in Ukraine show Russia’s shift to a long-term attrition strategy. Instead of pursuing rapid victories, Russian leadership is focusing on gradual pressure across military, political, and economic fronts—this includes intensified attacks, legislative changes, wide-scale propaganda, reserves formation, and moving the economy onto a war footing.
It is emphasized that the war of attrition does not only take place on the battlefield—political efforts accompany military actions. Russia seeks the political disintegration of Ukraine, with warfare serving as just one tool toward that aim. Some experts warn that the ultimate goal of this attrition strategy may be to provoke civil conflict inside Ukraine itself.
Negotiations are ongoing at a high level with China participating. Observers note that the fate of Ukraine’s NATO membership might be decided without Kyiv’s direct involvement, sparking debates within the alliance. Western media suggest a possible scenario in which Ukraine does not obtain full NATO membership, though this would not be enshrined legally.
The EU’s position on security guarantees for Ukraine remains uncertain: while some countries support more involvement, others remain hesitant. French initiatives for sending military instructors to Ukraine are discussed but lack broad European support so far, and economic ties with Russia remain significant for many states.
According to The Guardian, Britain may be ready for direct military involvement or a peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, depending on government and partner approval. Ukraine is already an enhanced partner in the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, which may affect further developments.
