Analyses of the peace agreements proposed in spring and now indicate minor differences, though the core remains unchanged. Putin no longer insists on the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from areas in Kherson and Zaporizhia not controlled by Russia. Russia maintains its intent to reclaim all claimed territories, including Donetsk, implying the conflict may continue until Moscow gains full control of Ukraine.
Both sides are now engaged in tactical arrangements driven by economic exhaustion. Russia is heavily dependent on imports from China yet considers rebalancing its economy towards renewed cooperation with the West. Losing the European market poses a severe economic threat for Russia, a key consideration during current talks about halting hostilities and potentially lifting sanctions.
The intensification of negotiations stems in part from internal US political factors ahead of the elections. President Trump is interested in resolving the situation for domestic reasons, notably for maintaining a congressional majority.
Experts suggest a comprehensive peace deal is unlikely until after Ukrainian presidential elections. A ceasefire between military officials is seen as more probable, followed by preparations for elections and, eventually, a peace agreement under a newly elected president. Restoring Ukraine's 1991 borders is not currently on the negotiation agenda.
In summary, the peace process remains active but far from finalized. Ukrainian elections and political developments may become key milestones in this process.
