The prospect of signing a peace agreement for Ukraine currently resembles a potential "freezing of the war," but the issue of the boundaries of separation remains unclear. The Korean scenario is considered realistic in some respects, yet it has not been officially offered. Instead, the proposed approach is closer to the Finnish scenario, with features such as legalizing the occupation of some territories and significant external management.
The expert emphasizes that Finland's case is unique and cannot be directly transplanted to Ukraine. The failed experience of the Munich Agreement and Czechoslovakia is also mentioned, where security guarantees were not delivered, leading to state collapse.
Beyond the territorial question, there are discussions on Ukraine's geopolitical future, European Union integration, and possible reconstruction with EU funds—issues to which Russia is opposed. A final version of the agreement is being prepared for the US, but it is expected that Russia will reject it, then put further pressure on Ukraine to accept a Russian-favored scenario.
The expert also notes a political crisis within the United States, weakening Trump's position and affecting the negotiation dynamics. According to the expert, Putin views the current US administration's weakness as an opportunity to prolong talks and seek more favorable terms for Russia.
In conclusion, no rapid peace breakthroughs are expected, as Russia adopts a delaying strategy while Ukraine continues to show the ability to strike Russian logistics.
