On December 15, in the studio of the Center for Public Analytics “Vezha”, political consultant Hlib Ostapenko and Valerii Klochuk discussed the negotiation process concerning the war in Ukraine, currently underway in Berlin. Special attention was paid to Ukraine's potential renunciation of NATO membership aspirations in exchange for legal security guarantees via a dedicated US Congressional law and European security assurances.
Ostapenko emphasized that these are the most active peace talks in the last four years, but reaching fundamental agreements with Russia remains in doubt. He pointed out that Russia's position has weakened and its army no longer has the reputation it held before 2022. For Ukraine, ending the war could allow for the rebuilding of national capacity and internal resilience, but future security must be reinforced not just by promises, but by real multilateral agreements and technological cooperation with the West.
The issue of NATO membership and the feasibility of amending the constitution is both speculative and important for Ukraine's domestic political landscape. Refraining from insisting on NATO entry may be seen as a diplomatic tactic to continue negotiations and engage the US. At the same time, such moves can be exploited in propaganda both in Russia and Ukraine.
A key point for society is the question of holding elections during martial law. According to reports, Ukraine's Presidential Office is considering legislative changes to enable elections despite martial law. Ostapenko noted that elections have both external and domestic implications: for the US, they demonstrate democracy; for Russia, they provide opportunities to destabilize Ukraine from within.
Organizing elections during wartime poses serious challenges: millions of citizens are abroad, and ensuring secure online voting is problematic due to cyber threats. The expert expressed skepticism about online voting and stressed the need for unity to preserve Ukrainian statehood.
In summary, the discussion focused on the multi-layered nature of the negotiation process, the influence of the US and Europe, Russia’s position, and Ukraine’s future in the global security architecture, as well as the complexities of maintaining domestic political stability and prospects for democratic procedures during wartime.
