On December 15, the Center for Public Analytics Veza held a discussion with political scientist and head of the 'Dylova Stolitsya' analytical center, Vadym Denysenko. The main topic was recent sociological research on how the Minchgate corruption scandal and ongoing war are shaping political ratings and public opinion in Ukraine.
The survey, conducted together with New Image Group across unoccupied territories of Ukraine, showed that 90% of Ukrainians are well aware of the Minchgate scandal. However, only 5% of respondents fully believe that all perpetrators will be brought to justice, and 22% expect at least partial accountability. Around 8% see the developments as a genuine fight against corruption; a quarter of society regards them as imitation reforms or a distraction from the war.
Notably, 70% of those surveyed identify corruption as Ukraine's primary problem—even above the issue of insufficient military aid. Despite this, most Ukrainians do not believe current anti-corruption efforts will have real impact in the near term.
The Minchgate case is expected to have lasting effects: despite officials’ dismissals, the story remains resonant and will affect political dynamics for years.
President Volodymyr Zelensky maintains a stable core electorate (26–28% across the population), but significantly expanding his support is difficult. In potential elections, his main competitor would be Valeriy Zaluzhny, potentially securing over 44% in a second round, whereas Zelensky is limited to roughly 28%.
Experts predict that holding elections during wartime will raise major legitimacy concerns: part of the public may view them as incomplete, and Russia is likely to exploit the situation in the information space. The idea of a referendum is being discussed, but analysts caution this could deepen social divides.
Zaluzhny’s participation in elections remains uncertain, especially if voting takes place during martial law. Upcoming decisions on elections and possible referendum will significantly affect Ukraine’s political future and government direction.
