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Elections during wartime: expert on political risks, legitimacy, and the role of external actors


An expert examines the prospects of holding elections under martial law, their impact on negotiations, internal stability, and the reactions of the West and Russia.

Holding elections during martial law has sparked active debate among Ukrainian politicians, experts, and the public. The expert notes that elections are seen as a possible tactical move in negotiations, but their conduct during wartime faces many legal and practical challenges. While the law bans elections under martial law, the constitution does not, and changes are possible depending on political consensus.

The American and Russian sides interpret possible elections differently. For the US, it's a means to demonstrate democratic standards; for Russia, it's a leverage point to destabilize Ukrainian society. Both the West and Russia may consider elections as a concession or a step toward compromise in peace talks. At the same time, Russian propaganda is expected to try to delegitimize both the elections and any new leadership, regardless of the outcome.

The main challenges include ensuring voter safety, especially for soldiers on the front lines, and enabling millions of Ukrainians abroad to vote. Online voting is problematic due to the risk of cyberattacks and external interference, while in-person voting is complicated, especially in active conflict zones.

The expert emphasizes that the legitimacy of such elections may remain in doubt within society, even with minimized external interference. Therefore, he stresses the importance of maintaining internal unity and civil oversight, avoiding destabilization, and making decisions with societal consensus and long-term interests in mind.

Amid ongoing negotiations, Russian demands for elections, and international partner expectations, President Zelensky has instructed the Cabinet to develop a draft law for possible elections within 60 days, introducing multi-day voting. However, both the expert and journalists indicate that organizing legitimate voting under current conditions remains an extremely difficult task.