On December 16, the Veza Analytical Center reviews the day's events with political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. The focus is the negotiation process between Ukraine, the US, Russia, and the role of European countries in providing security guarantees for Ukraine.
President Zelensky's latest statements centered on the Ukrainian delegation's planned trip to Miami to discuss technical issues related to security guarantees. Yet, according to Fesenko, these agreements remain largely undefined. The US demands the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas as a prerequisite for a peace deal, but it is unlikely that Ukraine will agree due to political and societal risks.
Different types of guarantees are being discussed with the US—from legally binding commitments to more ambiguous "assurances" of support. European partners, namely the UK and France, express willingness to deploy a military contingent in Ukraine after the war, but this remains a political declaration for now, with Poland and others not participating.
The NATO membership issue has faded in the negotiations, with the main focus now on a package of security guarantees and military support for Ukraine. On territorial questions: Russia demands legal recognition of five annexed regions, Ukraine only agrees to a ceasefire along the front line without granting legal status, while the US suggests a compromise formula leaving the status of some territories open.
A limited peace agreement might cover prisoner exchanges, humanitarian issues, and the management of strategic sites, but key sovereignty questions remain unresolved.
In practice, talks advance mainly on technical matters, with Ukraine and its partners seeking clear commitments and legal guarantees. Major decisions on security and territory remain suspended, and a final framework agreement has yet to be reached.
