For the first time since the large-scale invasion began, Russian Foreign Intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin has officially renewed contacts with German and British intelligence agencies. These developments coincide with shifts in the rhetoric of European leaders: figures such as Anders Stub, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, and the President of Finland increasingly state that Russia is not planning a large-scale attack on NATO.
Such statements can be seen as efforts to demonstrate that Europe is not fueling the conflict, seeking to influence US positions, particularly under Donald Trump’s administration. In the context of maintaining NATO unity, EU leaders are adopting a more conciliatory tone while navigating intra-European competition for leadership, especially between Germany and France.
At the same time, despite proclamations of support for Ukraine, significant trade between the EU and Russia continues, including energy resources and fish supplies. European politicians act pragmatically, balancing support for Ukraine with internal EU economic interests. Naryshkin’s contacts with European intelligence are viewed as an important signal for the future of Western-Russian relations.
Overall, Europe’s current stance is flexible, shaped by competing influences (the US, Russia, and internal European forces). European countries are increasing military budgets, preparing for possible challenges, and discussing the roles of players such as China and India in global security. While Europe seeks to avoid direct confrontation with Russia, risks of escalation remain, especially as China's global influence grows.
