In the interview, Valerii provides an in-depth analysis of Russia's current economic situation during the war against Ukraine. He notes that narratives about "historical lands" and "Novorossiya" remain present in Putin's rhetoric, but Russia's resources are limited for achieving its goals militarily.
Russia is acting almost exclusively on its own finances, purchasing equipment and weapons primarily from China and North Korea, with Iran offering paid assistance. Falling oil prices mean China and India are not Russia's allies, but rather pursue their own economic interests. Oil export revenues make up to 55% of Russia's budget, a critical factor under current circumstances.
Valerii mentions that negotiations between Russia, the US, and Europe might include lifting sanctions against Russia in exchange for a ceasefire, but the Kremlin has not yet made any official statements. Western sanctions and export restrictions have a significant impact on the Russian economy, forcing Moscow to seek new economic levers. Russian regional budgets experience large deficits and cannot even cover contract payments, highlighting the internal economic difficulties.
The international community has not decided on restoring economic relations with Russia after possible agreements, as regional instability could increase China's influence. Valerii emphasizes that while Ukraine would prefer a regime change in Russia, Western goals often do not coincide with Ukrainian interests.
