Europe continues active trade with Russia, with trade turnover in 2024 exceeding €60 billion despite sanctions. Russia faces significant losses in the oil and gas sector, as well as forestry and other industries. Opening the gas market could boost exports and offer relief from the current financial crisis.
However, recession and sanctions are increasingly pressuring the Russian economy. Experts believe Russia will have resources to sustain the war through 2026, but 2027 will bring major difficulties, including shortages of manpower. The economic factor is not yet decisive for Putin, though its influence will grow toward the end of 2026.
The idea of a referendum is under discussion in Ukraine as a potential condition for a ceasefire and part of a peace plan. President Zelensky has highlighted its importance, and a consultative referendum has been considered to shift responsibility for decisions to the public. Still, conducting a referendum in occupied territories is legally impossible.
During negotiations in Switzerland, the U.S. side raised the matters of elections and referendum, with an emphasis on renewing Ukrainian leadership. Russia, meanwhile, insists on maximalist terms—full control over Donbas—which hinders progress in talks and leaves little room for compromise. Experts note Moscow is stalling, awaiting possible changes on the front or waning Western support.
While diplomatic initiatives continue, real negotiations are hampered by Russia's firm ultimatums. The potential for concessions or a peace plan depends greatly on further economic pressure and the willingness of the main actors to reach an agreement.
