The year 2025 was marked by contradictions for the US economy. On one hand, economic growth in the third quarter reached 4.3%, the fastest pace in two years. This growth was driven by wealthy citizens' spending, increased exports of technology, equipment, and agricultural products, the military sector, and significant corporate investment in artificial intelligence.
The key growth factors were active consumption by the wealthy, strong exports amid a weakening dollar (which made US goods more affordable abroad), and large government defense outlays. Companies invested tens of billions in AI, building new data centers and hiring programmers. The main stock index S&P 500 climbed 18%—the third year of consecutive gains.
However, in April, Donald Trump declared a "Liberation Day" and imposed record-high tariffs on goods from most countries (10% baseline, 54% for China, 20% for Europe). This caused a sharp market drop, with some economists putting the risk of recession at 40%. After a brief tariff suspension, the market partially rebounded.
Inflation rose to 3% by September, with higher prices for food, housing, and medicine. Unemployment went up to 4.6% in November, while the industrial sector lost 67,000 jobs between April and November. Many companies raised prices, shifting tariff costs to consumers, so the average family spent $2,700–3,400 more per year due to tariffs.
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times, but this has not yet curbed inflation. Meanwhile, national debt increased by $2 trillion to over $38 trillion. Trump had predicted $600 billion in tariff revenues; in reality, revenues were $330 billion.
Despite these challenges, the US economy remained resilient. Still, underlying problems accumulated: the labor market weakened and factories closed. Some economists predict "decoupling," where GDP grows but new jobs do not appear.
In summary: macroeconomic data only reveal part of the story. Growth stems from a complex interplay of factors, and the US remains a major global economy despite political instability and shifting trade policy.
