Recent developments in peace talks among Ukraine, the US, and Russia highlight the complexity and unpredictability of achieving peace. The Ukrainian delegation, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, remains cautious toward a peace deal, considering the conditions for freezing the conflict as unacceptable due to political risks and issues of territorial integrity. Russian proposals for compromise have failed to gain traction, and Moscow's negotiating position with the West has visibly weakened.
International support, especially from the US and the European Union, remains crucial for peace prospects. The new American administration under Donald Trump seeks to balance Western and Russian interests, aiming to engage the Kremlin to counter China. Meanwhile, pressure continues on all parties to show flexibility to cease hostilities, which is seen as essential for a series of economic projects.
Attention is drawn to the recent appointment of Kyrylo Budanov to a senior post in the President’s Office. Experts debate whether this move will strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating position or reform the governance system. The prevailing view is that such personnel changes are unlikely to directly impact foreign or defense policy and are mainly aimed at streamlining internal administration.
A key barrier to a ceasefire remains the resources of both warring parties and their desire to show readiness for a prolonged conflict. Both Ukraine and Russia are conducting mobilizations and declaring intentions to fight as long as necessary. However, experts agree that both countries have limited resources, and as these become scarcer, the dynamics of the negotiation process may shift.
Elections during wartime in Ukraine are controversial. Many experts oppose online voting amid martial law due to concerns over fraud. President Zelensky aims to maintain flexibility with Western allies and seeks the best model to renew the government after a possible ceasefire.
The role of the US and Donald Trump in advancing peace talks should not be underestimated, even if some skepticism remains regarding a successful outcome. The prospects for ending the war remain uncertain and largely depend on changes in external and domestic political circumstances in both Ukraine and Russia.
