Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves—about 300 billion barrels, or roughly 17% of global reserves. In theory, this should guarantee the country a leading role in global oil exports. In practice, however, there's a vast gap between oil in the ground and barrels on the market.
After changes in the political landscape regarding Maduro's regime, discussions about potential returns of American companies have resurfaced. Yet the oil sector can't be revived by slogans alone: it needs modern infrastructure, equipment, logistics, stable electricity, and experienced staff. Currently, production is around 1 million barrels per day, compared to 3.4 million barrels per day in the late 1990s.
Years of internal decline have gutted the industry: mass layoffs at PDVSA, loss of skilled workers, worsened wages and working conditions, and imposed administrative management. Venezuela's oil itself is technically challenging—heavy, requiring special processing, stable supplies, and constant investment. Sanctions, unstable grids, equipment shortages, and a lack of qualified personnel cause ongoing production disruptions.
Legal and political risks are critical. Major Western companies have been reluctant to return after nationalizations and project control disputes. Even now, restoring output to 1990s levels would require about $58 billion in investment, which investors only consider with strong guarantees and predictable governance.
In short, Venezuela's oil flow can recover only with a stable environment, clear rules, and massive investment. Even then, growth will be gradual and take years, with no quick return likely.
