Throughout the war, the so-called Oreshnik missile has been shrouded in myth and speculation. Even after previous attacks without live warheads, many doubted the missile's existence and effectiveness, questioning whether Russia truly possessed such a weapon. Recent events, however, have shown that Oreshnik is real, and Russia no longer hides it from its arsenal.
Strikes in the Lviv region and earlier in Dnipro used empty missiles as a demonstration. If these missiles were equipped with explosives, the consequences could have been far more devastating. Western analysts note that with its full destructive potential realized, Oreshnik could inflict unprecedented damage.
Despite skepticism in some commentaries, analysts caution against both exaggeration and downplaying the threat. Oreshnik is primarily a weapon of intimidation, designed for mass destruction rather than precision strikes. Even an empty missile causes damage to infrastructure, and a combat-loaded one could threaten entire urban districts.
The demonstration of such a missile carries not only a military message but also a political signal, primarily aimed at the West and the US. Amid increasing pressure on Russia—economic sanctions and US strategic moves—Moscow seeks to highlight its own deterrent capabilities by showcasing potentially devastating weaponry at a critical war stage.
This also raises the issue of a reciprocal response. Ukraine's own "mythologized" experimental weapon, the Flamingo, has been discussed. With Oreshnik now revealed, there are growing expectations for Ukraine to demonstrate its own capabilities. Openly displaying once-mythical arms may signal shifts in not just battlefield tactics but also international political positioning.
In summary, Oreshnik's emergence is less a tactical breakthrough and more an element of intimidation strategy and geopolitical signaling to the West. The key question remains: can Ukraine mount an asymmetric show of strength in response?
