The main topic at the Paris talks was achieving a ceasefire. However, Russia categorically rejected any deployment of Western military forces in Ukraine, emphasizing the potential risks for these forces. Simultaneously, Russia demonstrated its missile capabilities in Western Ukraine to intimidate Ukraine’s partners and indicate its reach.
Participants drew historical parallels with other wars, emphasizing that frameworks for postwar peace often take time to develop. It was noted that increased international pressure—and especially stricter sanctions—are essential to push Russia toward negotiations. Ongoing sanctions have already led to drops in Russian oil purchases by countries like India, revealing the impact of these measures.
Other influential factors include recent developments in Venezuela and Iran, which are seen as limiting Russia’s geopolitical options. Experts concluded that, at present, Russia shows no willingness to engage in meaningful peace talks, though evolving circumstances and continued pressure may eventually alter its position.
An important aspect of the Paris talks involved discussing security guarantees for Ukraine after a peace agreement. There is an emerging approach where such guarantees would coincide with the signing of the peace agreement, involving separate treaties with the United States and European countries. The US is expected not to deploy troops in Ukraine but to participate in security agreements.
Overall, the process is evolutionary and aimed at the long term, as combined external and internal factors are gradually expected to make Russia more amenable to negotiations.
