Vitaly Portnikov analyzes the situation around the new round of Ukraine-Russia peace talks, which was postponed to next week. The date, location, and format remain unclear, and while the US suggested the possibility of participating, official involvement has not been confirmed.
Despite this, the United States remains an active player. Ahead of the consultations, US special representatives met with Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev in Miami. Yet, no direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv have taken place so far.
Portnikov stresses that peace negotiations occurring amid ongoing hostilities often serve to buy time rather than express a real desire to end the war. A genuine end to conflict would require a ceasefire, which Russia has not demonstrated a willingness toward.
The author highlights that detailed discussions on military and security issues can only be meaningful after political decisions are made by the leaders of Ukraine and Russia. Currently, Russian leadership shows no sign of readiness to end the war.
Portnikov notes that fundamental questions such as territorial issues remain unresolved. Russia’s demands tend to prolong the conflict rather than cease it.
Even if Ukrainian leaders accepted some concessions, it is unlikely this would lead to a ceasefire. Rather, it could heighten the risk of further destabilization. According to Portnikov, Russia’s president is primarily interested in political outcomes that would ease his military’s capture of new Ukrainian territories.
The analyst doubts that expert-level talks alone will bring progress without genuine political will from Russia’s president. Only substantial external pressure and weakening of Russia’s capacity could change the situation. After that, a real negotiation process and a true ceasefire may become possible.
