The Trump administration considers ending the war in Ukraine by improving relations with Russia, aiming to weaken China’s global influence. The strategy involves offering Russia incentives such as economic ties, seeking to draw Moscow closer to the US and away from Beijing, seen as the main long-term American rival.
Experts note that this approach echoes past US policies since the fall of the USSR. However, at present, a complete split between Russia and China seems unlikely due to their close economic and military relations. China actively trades with Russia and provides resources, but maintains a pragmatic stance to keep Russia within its sphere of influence.
International analysts emphasize that Washington’s overarching goal—regardless of administration—has been to prevent Russia’s total alignment with China. Europe largely leaves the US to take the lead in talks with Moscow, while divisions remain among Western states regarding sanctions and support for Ukraine.
According to Western media, China is preparing for a potential conflict with the US and learning from American military actions in the Middle East. US attention shifting to other theaters is viewed as an opportunity for China in the Indo-Pacific. Analysts stress China’s pragmatic approach to both Russia and Iran, marked by cautious global power politics.
European leaders, such as Finnish President Alexander Stubb, have proposed supporting US security efforts in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for more American support for Ukraine. Stubb emphasizes avoiding unfavorable peace deals for Kyiv and the need for greater dialogue within NATO.
Meanwhile, some Russian representatives urge Trump to sanction Europe for refusing to help US operations in the Middle East—moves interpreted as attempts to increase discord within NATO and the EU. Experts advise acting pragmatically and in national interest rather than based on personal attitudes toward political figures.
