The United States continues to build patron-client relations in the Western Hemisphere, while also dealing with developments in Iran. Meanwhile, Cuba is facing a massive energy blockade—an island nation of about 11 million people is almost entirely without electricity after oil supplies from Venezuela stopped and US pressure on Mexico to cut oil exports increased. As a result, gasoline prices on the black market have soared to $9 per liter, equivalent to an average Cuban’s annual salary.
This critical energy emergency has led to widespread protests and near-hunger riots. In response, the Cuban government is inviting investors to open bank accounts and invest, hoping to secure financial support. At the same time, the US—especially under Donald Trump’s administration—is seeking full control over Cuba and sees the country as a strategic tool in upcoming domestic political contests.
A transition of power in Cuba is being discussed as opposition structures on the island remain weak. There are indications that the current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, may step down in favor of a more US-friendly group of officials to attract investments and start a political transformation similar to the Venezuelan scenario.
On a global scale, Cuba’s situation is part of broader geopolitical developments: the US is working to reinforce its influence in the region while also facing challenges in Iran, the Middle East, and its relationship with China. The Republican Party’s electoral prospects are also affected by how these scenarios play out, but the lack of institutionalized opposition in Cuba increases risks for instability and delays democratic changes.
In summary, Cuba remains in blockade and is experiencing social unrest, while the US uses the situation to strengthen regional influence. The global impact may affect energy market stability and the balance of power among the US, China, and other geopolitical players.
