Recent developments in the oil market show China's ongoing engagement in purchasing Russian and Iranian oil despite sanctions. Oil prices remain high due to a supply deficit caused by reduced output in Gulf countries and attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure. China and India keep buying oil at favorable prices, but experts doubt Beijing will agree to pay significantly higher rates.
Speculation about future oil prices reaching $200 appears unlikely, as the market is overheated by political factors while actual trading volumes remain relatively stable. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is gradually stabilizing: Iranian tankers continue deliveries to China and India, and the US is not hindering Iranian oil shipments. However, Russian financial revenues from oil are considered overestimated, with real figures between $1.5 and $3 billion, according to experts.
Regarding the military escalation around Iran, statements about US proposals for de-escalation remain unconfirmed. Official sources deny the occurrence of negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Meanwhile, Israel systematically attacks key Iranian installations, further reducing the country's export capacity and causing economic destabilization.
Among US allies, there is no consensus on the duration of the operation against Iran. Some officials, including the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, have resigned over disagreement with President Trump's policies, and Trump himself lacks a clear plan for ending the campaign.
Trump criticizes the previous US administration for the scale of military support to Ukraine, stressing he sees no obligation for the US to assist Europe in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He continues to cite allegedly inflated aid figures for Kyiv, appealing to US voters and arguing that Europe should bear more financial responsibility.
In summary, the current situation remains tense: oil prices fluctuate due to geopolitical uncertainty, Israel’s strategic objectives concerning Iran do not change, and political divisions within the US and NATO affect the course of the military operation and allied support.
