Recent weeks have marked a turning point on the energy front in the war between Ukraine and Russia. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly struck key Russian oil ports and terminals. Targets included facilities in the Baltic and Black Sea regions: Primorsk, Ust-Luga, as well as Bashneft plant in Ufa, the Taman terminal, Novorossiysk and others.
Notably, the strike on Primorsk—the largest port in the Baltic Sea—ignited fuel and diesel storage tanks in an attack visible even from Finland. As a result, oil shipments were halted for several days, delivering a significant blow to Russia’s export capabilities.
Thanks to Ukraine’s systematic campaign, it is estimated up to half of Russia’s maritime oil exports have been blocked—up to 2 million barrels per day. Damaged terminals and disrupted operations at refineries substantially cut Russia’s budget revenue and complicate the army’s fuel supplies.
In the context of new US sanctions decisions and the possibility of Russia re-entering oil markets, these Ukrainian strikes hinder the Kremlin’s ability to gain additional income to fund the war. The international response is mixed; some countries continue to buy discounted Russian oil. However, Ukrainian drone attacks restrict exports and intensify economic pressure on Moscow.
Targeting the Kremlin’s oil infrastructure has become a systematic campaign, reshaping the regional energy market and amplifying calls for stronger international sanctions. This could influence Western strategies in supporting Ukraine.
