The second month of the conflict in the Middle East brings new ultimatums from US President Donald Trump to Iran. Trump demands Iran cease attacks on infrastructure in the Persian Gulf states, focusing on the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran does not comply, Trump threatens the destruction of Iran’s energy sector and the capture of Khark Island.
It is unlikely that Iran will concede, and despite repeated threats and shifting deadlines, the situation remains unchanged. Negotiations are opaque: Tehran officially denies talks, while intermediary consultations reportedly occur through Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other regional states.
Meanwhile, Iran remains active in the region alongside groups like Hezbollah, complicating matters for Israel and the US. Russia’s position is ambiguous: the Middle Eastern crisis temporarily amplifies its role, but Moscow’s geopolitical interests are often tied to American administration strategies, with episodic cooperation between Trump and Putin noted.
The article compares Western strategy toward Iran with the current Russia-Ukraine relationship, illustrates the chronology of confrontation, and discusses future scenarios based on Russia’s ongoing conflicts. The author highlights Ukraine's growing military expertise—particularly in anti-drone technology—which may bolster its significance as a partner for Gulf countries.
The continuation of the conflict threatens the global economy, impacting oil and essential goods prices. The analysis addresses potential consequences for Ukraine, which, owing to its war with Russia, must consider the Middle Eastern developments to strengthen its resilience.
