On March 31, political analyst Petro Oleshchuk appeared in the studio of the Veža Public Energy Center to share insights on political and military developments, focusing on the interplay between US foreign policy under Donald Trump and prospects for Ukraine.
Oleshchuk notes that the war in the Middle East did not bring Trump the expected dividends. The failure to achieve a swift victory or obtain allies' support undermined Trump’s position, while withdrawing from the operation in the region has negatively affected relations with NATO and Middle Eastern partners. Allies have expressed dissatisfaction with this inconsistency, with Senator Marco Rubio even raising the possibility of leaving the alliance.
Ukraine's negotiations with the US have been difficult, as the Ukrainian president admitted the delegation failed to change America’s stance. Oleshchuk predicts that after the Middle East conflict ends, priorities may shift, but Ukraine can benefit from new diplomatic channels in the region and Europe.
Traditionally, the expert adds, Trump may apply pressure on Ukraine to reach favorable deals with Russia, but the real problem lies in the many crises he creates domestically and internationally. The consequences of military campaigns, higher energy prices, and increased Russian revenues complicate matters for Ukraine, although they also offer opportunities to attract investment and strengthen diplomacy.
Regarding peace talks, Oleshchuk believes Russia is not currently prepared for genuine negotiations, as indicated by increasing information isolation and signs of mobilization. Talks may resume only under new circumstances and on different terms; previous plans have lost relevance.
Ukraine remains in a challenging diplomatic environment, facing slow EU decisions on financial assistance and reforms. Oleshchuk is confident that the EU's principal decision to support Ukraine already exists, but European partners seek additional concessions from Kyiv.
The war is likely to continue as a series of mutual attacks and defenses of infrastructure, with international involvement, including from China on arms issues. The main expectation is that the front line will remain largely unchanged in the coming months, provided Ukraine continues to receive funding. No major changes are currently predicted.
Overall, Ukraine’s strategy focuses on making use of new diplomatic opportunities and resilience against external, both military and political, pressure.
