Ushakov, assistant to the Russian president and key moderator of talks with Ukraine, announced the cessation of the trilateral peace negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Despite being labeled as peace talks, they have coincided with continued fighting and shelling in Ukraine.
Since Donald Trump officially became US president for a second term, these negotiations were supported by his administration. Russia, however, sought to use the talks as leverage to fully control Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. According to Ushakov, Moscow now expects Kyiv to take a 'serious step' — to withdraw from certain territories; only then, Russia claims, could hostilities cease and prospects for a long-term settlement be discussed.
This position is viewed by experts as unreasonable and is linked to Russia’s stalled advances at the front. Future Russian actions may include escalation or strikes in other regions, including potentially neighboring countries.
Inside Russia, the possibility of a new wave of mobilization is a subject of debate. Previous attempts triggered wide public dissent and protests, along with tightened internal controls, such as digital draft notifications and travel restrictions.
Meanwhile, Ukraine maintains active contacts with international partners, working with the US, Turkey, Azerbaijan and others on alternative diplomatic frameworks. While the negotiation process with Russia is described as stalled, Ukraine seeks to preserve critical backing from the US and EU, particularly in military-technical matters.
The West’s approach has also shifted: while support for Ukraine was cautious in 2022, European countries and the US have since adopted a more definite stance, boosting military and financial aid. The narrative of "Ukraine for peace" was originally aimed at foreign partners, but now also helps shape Ukraine's international reputation.
Overall, talks between Ukraine and Russia remain deadlocked, but military and diplomatic cooperation with the West continues. Scenarios for escalation remain possible, especially if Russia announces full mobilization, which could have unpredictable consequences for Putin’s regime.
