This week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced new Russian casualty figures in the war against Ukraine. According to his estimates, around 100,000 Russians have been killed just in 2024. This does not account for total casualties over the entire conflict, which may reach 300,000 or more—though the true number is probably higher.
The author emphasizes that despite these staggering losses, Russia shows no signs of stopping the war or fundamentally changing its strategy. The reason, they argue, lies in a deep demographic and values-based disproportion between the nations. From the beginning and throughout the conflict, Ukraine has fought with some of its best and brightest — the very flower of the nation. Russia, in contrast, sends marginalized groups into battle: people with criminal backgrounds, low social status, convicts, and those from obscure regions. For Moscow, its citizens have long been considered expendable, willing to lose any number for imperial ambitions.
In addition to battlefield losses, Russia's demography is altered by annexations and deportations—annexed territories with millions of residents, deported children, and a steady export of human resources from the periphery. This allows Moscow to maintain a quantitative edge, despite catastrophic losses.
In Ukraine, the topic of losses is often tabooed, replaced by endless rhetoric about resilience and never-ending national resistance. But ever-expanding cemeteries and new fields of memory serve as a stark reality check: there can be no victory without rethinking strategy. The author calls for creative and asymmetric approaches to resisting a stronger enemy, as advised by classic military theory.
The relationship between losses and demographic potential is increasingly pivotal for analysts and international discussion. US statements are pushing societies to reconsider the price of war and to seek new strategies based on the true asymmetric balance of forces and motivations.
