On July 14, Valeriy Klochok, head of the Center for Public Analytics "Vezha", and military expert Ivan Stupak discussed the recent visit to Ukraine by Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump's special envoy on Ukraine and Russia. Kellogg's visit comes amid expectations of a major Trump announcement regarding new arms supplies to Ukraine and the potential impact on the war's trajectory.
Kellogg held meetings with Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky and Andriy Yermak, aimed at clarifying the frontline situation and discussing the possible terms of substantial US military aid. The experts suggest the assistance may come with significant restrictions: limits on how and where certain advanced weapons can be used, as well as a possible pause on supplies if Russia indicates readiness to negotiate.
The financial side of US support was also analyzed. Trump has emphasized that Patriot missile systems and long-range weapons would only be delivered if fully funded by Europe. Meanwhile, it is possible that proceeds from frozen Russian assets may be used primarily to replenish US arms stocks rather than being directly transferred to Ukraine.
The discussion included updates on missile production in Germany and Japan for Ukraine's needs, Ukraine's ongoing dependence on Western arms supplies, and the US's ability to remotely control some of those weapons. Experts noted the duration of the conflict now hinges on the decisions of the US, Russia, China, and the EU. Intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov called the US and NATO essential to any diplomatic settlement, with China and North Korea acting as influential but not central players.
Analysts believe a possible truce would require Russian concessions on occupied territories and potential US/EU demands for Ukraine to abandon its NATO aspirations. At the same time, European countries are likely to be less flexible about sanctions and reparations, making any negotiation process difficult and multi-layered. The eventual outcome will depend on the agreements reached by Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv.
