Yesterday, information emerged from a German general revealing that Germany has launched its own missile production line for Patriot systems, with the first deliveries to Ukraine expected as early as this year. It's unclear whether the missiles will be used by Ukraine against Russia or for air defense, but the main takeaway is that production is underway. However, questions about licensing restrictions and the pace of manufacturing remain unresolved.
German Army Commander Christian Freuding said that the first missiles may arrive in Ukraine by the end of July, with hundreds of launches projected in the near future. Experts note that Ukraine needs to produce about 60-70 ballistic missiles per month to reach parity with Russia.
The discussion also covered potential terms for a hypothetical peace deal. If the US provides sufficient military aid and Moscow agrees to a pause and partial withdrawal, conditions for negotiations could arise. One scenario involves Russia pursuing diplomatic claims over occupied territories, while Ukraine might be pressured to renounce its NATO aspirations.
Experts emphasize that even with US pressure on Kyiv and Moscow, convincing Europe to lift sanctions on Russia will be difficult. Potential restrictions for Ukraine could include a ban on foreign military bases and a commitment to neutrality. Russia, on the other hand, would face different mechanisms of influence.
Regarding Kyrylo Budanov's prediction of a high probability the war could stop in a few months, commentators suggest it would require agreement from the US, Russia, and Ukraine. The role of China and North Korea is harder to predict, though their arms support for Russia is significant. The ultimate decision rests primarily with Moscow.
Moreover, a complete end to the war through Western concessions alone seems unlikely, as the issues of reparations and accountability remain unresolved. Freezing the conflict along current lines would require not only Moscow's willingness but also a readiness on all sides for tough compromises.
