A few days ago, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence, stated that the war could end within a few months if three countries participate: the US, Russia, and Ukraine. However, China's role as a key proxy for Russia may prolong hostilities, especially considering Beijing's and North Korea's substantial support, giving Russia greater capacity to continue the war.
The speaker warns that Russia faces worsening economic problems: rising unemployment, industrial downturns, and inflation. An increase in the base interest rate to 8% could halt investments entirely. These developments form the basis for growing social discontent, though predicting rapid political change remains difficult.
It is stressed that there is a difference between formal war and active combat phases. Freezing the conflict or shifting to a pause is possible, given both economic and social trends in Russia. Public support for the war has dropped markedly since 2022.
Mobilization and labor dynamics are also significant: Russia faces a worker shortage, partly compensated by migrants from India and China. This leads to gradual population replacement and rising ethnic and social tensions, potentially causing future internal crises.
There is also discussion about the prospect of drone and missile strikes on Moscow and St. Petersburg. Mirrored attacks could push for the end of active combat, as the psychological impact on Russia's decision-making centers could influence the country's political climate. Meanwhile, ensuring the security of other states after a pause in the war should become part of the broader strategy.
