On July 21, the Veza Center for Public Analytics hosted a discussion with Serhiy Danilov, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies. The key topic was recent statements by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev regarding Russia, Ukraine, and the broader context of relations in the South Caucasus.
Danilov highlighted that Aliyev's strong remarks, including the refusal to recognize Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories, have made waves in Russian media and reflect deteriorating relations between Moscow and Baku after an Azerbaijani aircraft was shot down in December last year. Azerbaijan is increasingly acting autonomously, seeking settlement with Armenia independently of Russian mediation, which has frustrated the Kremlin.
According to Danilov, Aliyev's policy remains primarily pro-Azerbaijani. Baku is centered on preserving its sovereignty and favorable economic ties. Since 2022, Azerbaijan has increased support for Ukraine, including energy, but maintains vital economic contacts with Russia, which plays an important role in regional projects and trade corridors.
The discussion also focused on the Azerbaijani diaspora and business interests in Russia. After a number of high-profile incidents—such as arrests of diaspora members and threats to Azerbaijani business control over Moscow markets—Russia is tightening its grip on these structures. Despite this, Azerbaijan responds cautiously and maintains a balanced approach.
The conversation covered the growing relevance of the Turan project and Turkey's regional influence. While Russian influence in the South Caucasus is waning, President Erdogan favors de-escalation between Baku and Moscow. Escalation is expected to remain mild, as both sides avoid open confrontation due to significant economic stakes.
Overall, the South Caucasus is experiencing a shift, with Azerbaijan consolidating its position, Russia showing restraint, and all actors carefully managing their economic, security, and political interests.
