Vitalii Portnikov analyzes Russia’s recent attack on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities as a direct response by President Putin to an ultimatum from US President Donald Trump. Trump demanded Russia reach a peace deal within 50 days to stop the fighting, with a focus on halting deadly missile and aerial bombardments on civilian neighborhoods, concerns he stressed during his meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
Portnikov underlines that Putin is ignoring the ultimatum, leveraging aerial terror to pressure Ukrainians. Russia engaged in simulated peace talks mainly to avoid coordinated US, EU, and UK sanctions rather than to achieve any real ceasefire. Instead of responding to the May ultimatum, Putin suggested continuing the so-called ‘negotiation process’ in Istanbul, which resulted only in minor agreements on humanitarian matters.
Currently, Moscow shows no intent to resume substantive talks. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov emphasized a deadlock over the negotiation documents, indicating there is no sense in further negotiations until disagreements are resolved. The Russian side expects the Ukrainian delegation simply to accept Russia’s conditions, effectively meaning Ukraine’s capitulation.
The escalation of attacks continues. According to Portnikov, the purpose of aerial terror is to demoralize the civilian population and destroy Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, weakening its defensive capacity. For decades, the Russian military’s doctrine has prioritized such tactics.
Putin is unlikely to respond positively to Trump’s ultimatum for as long as the geopolitical context allows. He may count on continued support, especially from China, which purchases Russian oil and helps circumvent sanctions.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen has stated that Washington will raise the issue of China’s continued purchase of sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil in talks with Beijing. Such deals allow Russia and Iran to maintain war efforts and destabilize key regions. Portnikov argues that if China stops supporting Russia economically, these wars could swiftly end.
However, it remains uncertain how far Washington is willing to go in confronting China. Portnikov expresses hope that the US position will become clear before Trump’s 50-day deadline to Putin for ending civilian casualties in Ukraine expires.
