This episode explores new trends in US-Russia-Ukraine relations. Journalist Vitaliy Portnikov examines whether Donald Trump is actually setting a 50-day deadline for Putin to end the war and how realistic such scenarios might be. According to Portnikov, drastic changes at the front are unlikely within this timeframe — these numbers look more like political maneuvering than concrete plans.
The discussion also covers Russia’s internal dynamics: the motives of the leadership, the influence of security agencies (especially the FSB) on war decisions, and the supposed influence groups within Putin’s inner circle. Portnikov notes that not only military pressure, but also strengthened financial sanctions — above all, limitations on Russian oil exports and collaborations with China, India and Brazil — could be decisive in ending the war. Although Russia still circumvents sanctions by roundabout energy sales, the expert stresses that the impact of Western sanctions should not be underestimated.
Attention is also paid to the negotiation process: Moscow and Kyiv demonstrate readiness for a new round of talks, but practical prospects remain vague, and much of the negotiation process serves as information manipulation and a means to ease sanctions pressure.
The situation around Azerbaijan receives special mention: the country’s open support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and open conflict with the Kremlin are discussed, including Russian propaganda threats and the possible increase in pressure from Moscow after Azerbaijan’s lawsuit following the downing of its aircraft.
In conclusion, Portnikov states that the coming months will be tense for international politics. Financial levers, Western support for Ukraine and new geopolitical challenges may prove decisive in upcoming events.
