Recent developments in the South Caucasus indicate Russia's gradual loss of influence in the region, accompanied by Turkey's rising role and the activation of Turkic integration projects. Despite Moscow still possessing certain levers—such as a military base, control over Armenia's railway and nuclear plant—Russia's impact is visibly diminishing, as acknowledged by Russian experts themselves.
After Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the "Turan" project gained fresh momentum. With Russia's western borders largely blocked, China and Central Asian countries are increasingly interested in cooperation along the so-called "Middle Corridor." Investments in the region's transport infrastructure are growing, and new ports are being constructed, especially on the Caspian Sea.
However, economic crises in Turkey have limited its scope for influence. While Ankara has achieved a string of foreign policy successes in the Middle East and supports Azerbaijan-Armenia dialogue, it is not in a position to openly confront Russia.
The parties are engaged in cautious escalation: Azerbaijan has demanded apologies from Russia for downed aircraft incidents and repression against its diaspora, while Moscow has responded with import bans on Azerbaijani products. Erdogan aims to avoid military conflict, so the standoff remains "cold," with careful tit-for-tat actions designed to preserve the status quo.
Experts expect the trend of "quiet confrontation" to continue in the near term, using asymmetric means and avoiding direct escalation. Economic ties between the countries help restrain further conflict.
