Moscow is intensifying its preparations for a potential conflict with Europe, effectively engaging in a shadow war. Attacks on opponents' rear areas and efforts to weaken support for Ukraine have become central Kremlin strategies. Over the past two years, tactics have become more aggressive: previously isolated incidents have evolved into a broad campaign of terror across Europe.
According to Leiden University, 44 Russian operations against European countries were recorded in 2024. Czech security services alone reported 500 suspicious incidents in 2024, with more than a hundred linked directly to Moscow. The most common forms of sabotage are arson and explosions (35% of attacks), often using disguised incendiary devices in packages or electrical appliances. For example, a fire at a Berlin factory and the arson of a shopping center in Warsaw occurred in May 2024.
Significant attacks also target critical infrastructure (21%) and transportation (20%). Russian operatives deliberately sabotage railways to block arms shipments to Ukraine and frequently carry out cyberattacks on European communication systems, hiring agents to cut cables in Poland and France. The private sector owns much of this infrastructure and is often unprepared for these evolving threats.
A distinct class of attacks involves maritime operations, including damaging undersea cables and pipelines critical to both civilian and military activity. NATO has responded with patrol operations in the Baltic Sea, but the Kremlin increasingly uses criminal intermediaries rather than traditional intelligence agents.
For sabotage, Moscow recruits Europeans using criminal networks, social media channels, and offers from several thousand to tens of thousands of euros. Russia operates a range of structures: military intelligence units, the SVR for cyberattacks, and the FSB for counterintelligence and terror. Notable examples include the Skripal poisoning in the UK, explosions in the Czech Republic, and the SolarWinds cyberattack.
In response, Europe has stepped up counterintelligence operations and made arrests: in 2024, eight countries jointly dismantled a Russian propaganda network. Despite these efforts, forecasts remain cautious; without improved security, more terrorist attacks in the EU are expected in 2025.
Moscow's shadow war aims to create chaos, undermine support for Ukraine, and paralyze vital infrastructure. Experts urge European countries not to ignore these threats and to increase investments in their security.
