Prominent Ukrainian journalist and political analyst Vitaliy Portnikov commented on key developments in Ukraine, especially the restoration of independence for anti-corruption institutions NABU and SAP. He stressed that while their independence is vital for international support, the primary issue remains preserving the Ukrainian state, without which anti-corruption efforts are meaningless.
Portnikov emphasized that decisions regarding anti-corruption bodies are influenced by both society and Western partners. He criticized the tendency towards impulsive policy-making and highlighted the risk of political instability due to such actions, calling for strategic and principled decision-making.
Turning to the military context, Portnikov noted the intensification of Russian air and missile attacks, the targeting of civilian infrastructure, and Moscow's strategy of attempting to force Ukraine into concessions via attrition. He argued that the Kremlin's goal is not simply victory, but to make Ukraine unlivable and erode the functioning of the state.
Portnikov also discussed renewed calls for peace talks from the US and other international actors. He argued that actual prerequisites for a real peace deal do not yet exist, as Russia’s objectives are fundamentally at odds with Ukraine’s interests. The potential for escalation in other directions remains, but at present, Russian forces lack capacity for major offensives against the Baltic states or NATO countries.
The analyst warned that a prolonged war of attrition could devastate both Ukraine and Russia in terms of infrastructure and demographics. However, Portnikov believes Ukraine has a path to recovery as part of the Western community, while Russia risks further isolation.
